By Seye Olumide
The Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) of the Lagos State
chapter of All Progressives Congress (APC), formed and headed by the party’s
national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, wielded the big stick recently.
In a swift move, GAC proscribed all groupings in the party
after its meeting on Wednesday. The
shock wave reverberated across several political tendencies. Observers were quick to interprete the developments as a
sign of the “crack in the Bola Ahmed Tinubu political dynasty”. But it was not
really new to many party insiders.
What was however baffling to outsiders was the insinuation
that the council’s decision is the outburst of the ‘secret but cold war’
between Tinubu and his closest political ally and former Governor of Osun
State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola.
In a communiqué signed by the 27-member GAC, which announced
the dissolution of all political groups within the Lagos State APC, affirmed
that the decision was intended to strengthen the party’s unity.
The state APC Chairman and member of GAC, Tunde Balogun,
said all groups have been dissolved, just as he added that the Justice Forum
(JF) and the Mandate Group (MG) were also affected by the ban.
But, as soon as the decision was taken, it was immediately
interpreted among members of the public, who have long insinuated about the
possible cold war between Tinubu and Aregbesola, took it to hook, line and
sinker that the bond between the two political allies has finally burst.
But the national leader and his political protégée,
Aregbesola, quickly went public in quick denial of any rift between them. They
described reactions to the GAC decision as a mere misinterpretation of what the
council intended to achieve, adding that those were the handiworks of
mischief-makers.
However, analysts within and outside the party are still
convinced there are more to the GAC’s decision that goes beyond the denials by
Tinubu and the Minister of Interior.
Taking a cursory look at some of the possible reasons that
might have fueled the perceived rift between the two allies, some party
chieftains members said the perceived frosty relationship between them
apparently started during the 2016 governorship primary in the Ondo State
chapter.
During the primary, Tinubu openly expressed his preference
for Mr. Segun Abraham, while Aregbesola and some strong members of Mandate
Group pitched their tents with a former legal Adviser of Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP), Chief Olusola Oke, who had defected to APC.
The incumbent governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, eventually won the
primary and the governorship election in spite of Tinubu’s and Aregbesola’s
preference.
Pundits, however, claimed that Tinubu was not really happy
and comfortable with the fact that Aregbesola and some members of Mandate Group
stood against his choice.
More so, the primary was painful to Tinubu, who as at then
had a face-off with the erstwhile National Chairman of APC, Chief John
Odigie-Oyegun to the extent of accusing the national chairman of corruption,
which he put in a statement to the media.
It was also gathered that another issue that might have
precipitated the rancor was at the tail end of Aregbesola’s tenure as governor
in 2018, the party had to decide his successor.
As a sitting governor, the minister was said to be planning
for a successor other than Mr. Gboyega Oyetola, who enjoined Tinubu’s
endorsement.
But Aregbesola not only bowed to Tinubu’s preference for
Oyetola but also worked for APC to retain control of the state without exposing
his displeasure.
A source within Osun APC stated: “What pissed Aregbesola was
the manner his successor had been trying to frustrate the minister’s political
structure in the state since he took over in 2018.”
The Guardian was reliably informed that the relationship
between Aregbesola, Tinubu and Oyetola worsened when the minister discovered
that most often, his successor visited Lagos, especially the Ikoyi residence of
the national leader without branching to pay homage to him in his Lagos
residence even when the governor knows that Aregbesola was in Lagos
“But, politicians being what they are, Tinubu and Aregbesola
were still able to manage their relationship and forge ahead,” the source said.
Then there was the allegation that Governor Oyetola, with
the support of Tinubu, nominated a candidate other than Aregbesola as the
ministerial nominee from Osun. When he found out, the Minister of Interior was
said to have expressed dismay that the Lagos godfather, whom he served as Commissioner
kept sealed lips, even while his successor was also busy dismantling his
political structure.
Having realised how he was being rendered politically
defenseless and irrelevant in Osun by his successor, Aregbesola was said to
have chosen to return to his Lagos base and the Mandate Group for the 2023
battle ahead.
As part of his effort to re-launch himself, Aregebsola
recently revamped the Mandate Group (MG), a core support group that helped
Tinubu secure a second term in 2003. He appointed one of his boys, Abdullahi
Enilolobo, as the new chairman of MG, while he elevated Cardinal James Odumbaku
to the position of apex leader.
But, other insiders said the minister’s action was not
directly targeted at the national leader, but the Speaker of Lagos State House
of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, who was said to have taken some far-reaching
decisions considered inimical to the political interest of Aregbesola in Lagos
without being called to order by Tinubu.
It was gathered that GAC’s decision was instigated by Obasa
to insulate himself from the excesses of MG members in the state Assembly.
“The appointment of Enilolobo by Aregbesola as the new
leader of MG was considered an affront by Obasa. It was also seen as a threat
to the political future of the Speaker, both in the Mandate Group and in Lagos
and not necessarily that Tinubu used the GAC’s decision to embarrass his
friend,” the source disclosed.
But countering that line of argument as baseless and
insignificant, another source stated: “who is Obasa to influence the GAC, where
there are elders and Tinubu to ban groups like MG and JF?
“Recall that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is a member of the
Mandate Group, while his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, is of the Justice Forum
(JF). Not long after Sanwo-Olu emerged as the governor-elect, there was a sharp
rivalry between the MG and JF.
“When they went on a thank you visit to Lagos Central
Senatorial district, after securing the party’s ticket, one of the elders,
Alhaji Tajudeen Olusi, a founding member of JF, sounded a note of warning.
“He said MG should not consider itself superior, just as he
canvassed that all the support groups should be collapsed under one umbrella.
“Right from that moment, the rivalry between the two major
groups has been so intense and unprecedented that party elders kept warning the
national leader of the danger such developments portends for the future of APC
in Lagos, as well as that the governor and his deputy should have the
opportunity to concentrate on governance.”
It was also gathered that Tinubu and the elders in the GAC
might not have been comfortable with the apparent egocentric politics among
members of the two major groups leading to the division in the House of
Assembly, with speculations that some members of JF are already pushing Hamzat
to seek the governorship ticket in 2023
“It was therefore incumbent on them to act fast before it
was too late. The leaders also discovered to their chagrin that the party
executive in Lagos is more or less like a toothless dog compared to the power
and influence wielded by the splinter groups in decision making,” the source
said.
The Guardian learnt that Tinubu and the GAC members
reflected on the possible damages the rivalry between the two subgroups could
inflict on their corporate and individual political reputations if the excesses
of MG and JF were not curtailed ahead of 2023.
“For instance, when some members of JF did everything
possible to save the immediate past governor, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode, in the
intrigues preceding the 2018 governorship primary, hawks in the MG were adamant
about blocking Ambode’s return for a second term.
“If members of JF, who are allegedly instigating Hamzat to
contest in 2023 have their way, the crisis that such a development may generate
may ultimately fall on the shoulders of the national leader, particularly
considering the fact that he (Tinubu) was said to have tried to frustrate
former governor Babatunde Fashola in 2007 and Ambode in 2018.
Ruling Party And Political Grouping In Lagos
NO sooner had the former Military Head of State, Gen.
Ibrahim Babangida (rtd) started the transition to civil rule programme than Oba
Hamzat, who had been a staunch political ally of Jakande since the Unity Party
of Nigeria (UPN) days, left the former governor, Alhaji Jakande, to form the
People Resolved Irrevocably to Maximise the Resources of the State for
Excellence (PRIMROSE) alongside the likes of Bashorun Olorunfunmi, Kola Oseni,
Tinubu, Henry Ajomale and others, to support the governorship ambition of Chief
Dapo Sarumi.
Meanwhile, Jakande and his group supported Femi Agbalajobi
on the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). That was the development that
negatively affected the chances of SDP to produce the governor, and provided
the opportunity for the late Governor Michael Otedola of National Republican
Convention (NRC) to emerge.
Sources said Oba Hamzat and his loyalists parted ways with
Jakande on the claim that no single individual should continue to dictate the
direction of events tagged “no more baba so pe’.
The late Ogun monarch was also privy to the nomination of
Tinubu as the SDP senatorial candidate in 1991, has developed a close
relationship with the current APC national leader within the PRIMROSE group.
That era ended, because the Third Republic was short-lived, following
Babangida’s annulment of the June 12, 1993, Presidential election, believed to
have been won by Chief MKO Abiola.
At the onset of the Fourth Republic in 1999, Oba Hamzat,
foreseeing the dangers of aligning with Jakande on the same platform moved
along with Tinubu and others in the PRIMROSE group to the Alliance for
Democracy (AD).
With their closely-knit platform, it was easy for them to
hijack the governorship ticket for Tinubu, having successfully wrestled the
party’s structure from Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu, who was then disposed to Eng.
Funso Williams.
Some commentators point to that take-over as the root of the
crisis in Lagos chapter of Afenifere. Leaders of the Yoruba socio-cultural
group had supported Tinubu on the grounds that Williams was too closely
associated with the military government.
They, however, fell apart with Tinubu and his allies,
including Hamzat, after opposing Tinubu, who, after winning the 1999
governorship election, consciously alienated Dawodu.
Realising that if Tinubu could deal with Dawodu, he could
also turn against him and his group in the party, Oba Hamzat formed the Justice
Forum, alongside with his PRIMROSE colleagues, while governor Tinubu and
Aregbesola, formed the Mandate Group.
As governor, Tinubu allowed his friend to direct the affairs
of MG. The two groups, however, collaborated to achieve common goals when AD
transmuted to Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and later
APC. Yet, the rivalry between them did not cease.
It is popularly held that Oba Hamzat remained politically
influential even until his death due to his hold on Mushin politics, including
his popularity across Lagos East, especially in the Epe division, where his
son, Obafemi, emerged to aspire for the APC governorship ticket in 2015. It was
also Oba Hamzat that introduced the former APC National Legal Adviser, Dr. Muiz
Banire and Tinubu, to Mushin politics.
Tinubu, Aregbesola’s Rift Inconceivable
LOOKING back at the history of their relationship, it would
be inconceivable that Tinubu and his protégé, Aregbesola, would throw caution
to the wind and engage in a battle of wits.
Apart from serving as commissioner of works from 1999-2007
under Tinubu, Aregbesola benefitted from Tinubu’s influence to emerge as Osun
State governor. Also, when the PDP
wanted to muscle Aregebesola’s reelection in 2014, the national leader threw
his weight to support him.
But Tinubu’s loyalists noted that Aregbesola started
referring to Tinubu as “my brother and my partner”, rather than the usual “my
leader and my mentor”. A top member of the party told The Guardian it would be
very difficult if not impossible for the minister to confront Tinubu in
whatever way and for whatever reason not to talk of the affinity between the
family of the two politicians, especially their wives.
Aregbesola had, during a public function before he became
governor, said he hardly eats elsewhere apart from Asiwaju’s house to show the
closeness and affinity between the two.
Rationalising GAC’s Decision
ACCORDING to GAC, all groupings in APC like MG and JF, are
inimical to the party’s unity and were therefore permanently disbanded and
prohibited.
It charged Balogun with the task of promulgating more
detailed regulations as to the prohibited and permissible activities for
sub-party groupings, limiting reference to the names for historical purposes
only.
In a communiqué, the council warned that party faithful
members should no longer use the factions or their names for future party
businesses and activities. “Continued holding of meetings in the name of the
groups or to promoting such associations will amount to a violation of this
resolution,” the communiqué stated.
Signatories to the communiqué were Asiwaju Bola Ahmed
Tinubu, Governor Babajide Sanwoolu and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, former
Governors Babatunde Fashola and his successor, Akinwunmi Ambode; Prince
Tajudeen Oluyole Olusi, Otunba Henry Oladele Ajomale, Otunba Bushura Alebiosu,
Prince Abiodun Ogunleye, Omoba Murphy Adetoro, state chairman of the party,
Babatunde Balogun among others.
The council, however, lamented that several attempts were
put in place by Tinubu to unify and reconcile both the Mandate Group and
Justice Forum by appointing their members into his cabinet.
It also noted that several meetings were held to eliminate
divisions that could hurt the party, which led to the constitution of the GAC
as an important party mechanism to deliberate and resolve important matters
through dialogue and compromise, instead of fiat.
Meanwhile, a member of the GAC, Chief Lanre Rasak, who spoke
with The Guardian yesterday dismissed the insinuation that the decision to ban
all groupings in Lagos APC was part of Tinubu’s moves to check the influence of
Aregbesola.
A member of the party however said there is no
constitutional power backing the GAC to dissolve any group within the party.
“At least, the GAC is also a group within the Lagos APC constituted by somebody
to advise the governor. Where then does it derive its power to prohibit another
group(s) within the party? APC cannot be run like a sole proprietor business.”
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