On Nigeria's obsession with trade deficits

                                By Bayo Ogunmupe

    Nigeria's economic reforms are yielding positive results as the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a widening of the trade balance of N2.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2018. Balance of trade is the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports for a particular period of time. And this is the largest component of a country's balance of payments, also referred to as balance of trade. This shows that Nigeria is improving since trading with our partners at the end of 2017 was valued at N4.04 billion. that was achieved after recording a negative trade balance of N290.10 billion in the year 2016.

    However, the notion that trade surpluses are a measure of a nation's economic prowess dates back to centuries. In 16th century Europe, mercantilists from Britain to Venice sought to accumulate gold by promoting exports and discouraging imports. Their intellectual heirs today think trade surpluses boost national welfare, employment and economic growth. while deficits do the opposite. This preoccupation with surpluses is based on dubious arithmetic: since a nation's exports are another's imports, it is impossible for all countries to be net exporters.

    This also overlooks a more fundamental point about trade. The main benefit from trade is imports- foreigners sending the fruits of their labour for us to enjoy, allowing us to focus on what we do best. Working to produce exports is the price we pay to enjoy these benefits. A better goal is to reduce the export effort needed to obtain a given quantity of imports. Economists call this enhancing the terms of trade. This makes intuitive sense in our lives: you run a surplus with your employer in order to run deficits with your grocery supplier, your daughter's football club and your favourite restaurant.

    Now imagine if you could run those same deficits while spending only half as much time at the office. Adam Smith recognized in 1776 that the true wealth of a nation was not the gold and silver in its coffers, but the productivity of its labour force. In our own case in Nigeria, it would be the creativity of our workers. "Nothing can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade," he wrote. Fast forward to the present day, and his warning is once again going unheeded by policy makers. Erecting protectionist barriers is unlikely to create jobs and prosperity, for two reasons.

    First, current measures of trade on the basis of flows give a distorted view of bilateral trade balances, since they fail to account for components imported to make exported goods. Given the fragmentation of production across multi-country value chains, a far better gauge of a nation's trade performance is how much value it adds to inputs. Focusing exclusively on goods exacerbates the misperceptions since it excludes trade in services, which typically accounts for more than two-thirds of output in advanced economies.

    Second, there is no formal relationship between a country's trade balance and its economic health or labour market dynamics. For example, US job creation since the 1990s has been fastest during periods when imports were growing rapidly. The trade balance dramatically narrowed in 2009- because GDP growth and job creation were plummeting due to the financial crisis, which shrank demand for imported goods and services. Germany has big trade surpluses rather than deficits, but manufacturing's share of total employment there, has been declining at the same pace as in the United States.

    Third, a nation's trade surplus or deficit is shaped less by the content of its trade agreements - tariff levels, quotas and regulations than by the balance between domestic saving and investment within her own economy. Take the European Union: the bloc has the same trade policy. Yet its member states perform very differently. The current account balance- is a function of internal saving and investment. Nations that run deficits spend more on imports than they earn from exports; they borrow from the rest of the world to make up the difference.

    Conversely, surplus economies earn more from exports than they pay for imports; they lend the difference abroad, accumulating claims on foreigners in the process. The only way to shift the current account balance is to alter savings and investment behavior of households, firms and governments. Trade protectionism is an indirect way to accomplish this, but it could miss the target or backfire. Cross-country evidence suggests no clear link between tariff protection and current account balances. Indeed, higher tariff countries tend to have larger trade deficits. The World Trade Organization rulebook authorizes nations to take protective action against import surges or predatory pricing. But while such measures can fight unfair trade, they have little effect on trade deficits.

    Trying to tackle trade deficits bilaterally won't work. balancing trade with individual countries would, in practice, require constant interference with purchase and sales of thousands of companies and households, raising prices and generating distortions. But this does not mean we should ignore large trade surpluses and deficits. The cross border financial flows are vulnerable to sudden stops that can be destabilizing, as Asian nations learned in 1997, followed by the Eurozone a decade later. The solution lies in international cooperation to get frugal countries to spend and nations with big deficits to tighten their belts.

        The group of 20 leading nations is the logical forum in which to do just that. The last meeting we were invited to was held in Germany. Europeans knowing the terminal nature of the health of our president, declined to invite him to subsequent meetings. We might try to invite ourselves to the next meeting. Similarly, broad negotiations among trading partners are the most effective way to address unsatisfactory trade rules and industrial overcapacity. Thus, governments need to develop policies and institutions that cushion the blow from changes brought by both competition and technology; constrain runaway inequality and equip people with businesses to share in the opportunities presented by the global economy. Crafting good policies is the real challenge in trade, current account balances are merely a distraction.

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How to discover your life purpose

                 

                              By Bayo Ogunmupe

         While we live in perpetual fear of making mistakes or taking wrong turns, the spiritual equation allows us to take the free way and hit the destination we desire. Because the voice of the universe can never be wrong, you should mute out the voice of your ego and tune  into the  voice of the universe. This  my letter is so timely now where a lot of conflicting messages about politics, career, relationships, parenting and even nutrition bombard us even to the point of utter confusion. You can avoid all of the time wasted by following the spiritual formulas set below.

      One, formulate a powerful guided meditation and affirmative prayer that will allow you to accept and love yourself fully. Try to live differently from your friends and neighbors. Even small changes can be significant: different form of transportation to work or different route home. Eat lunch with someone different in a place you've never been before. Wear a dress you would never have worn before. The mind that opens to a new idea never returns to its original size. Get out of your comfort zone. Of course at this point of your following this column, you are well out of your comfort zone already. But you must take advantage of your unusual position to take you further out of your comfort zone.

     Two, a recent study from the Harvard School of Business in the USA suggests that asking for advice is actually well received and makes you look more capable. By asking for advice, you acknowledge the other person's intelligence and expertise, which makes them feel good. Remember the U.S car magnate Henry Ford's words: Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right. Consistency of purpose is what matters in any kind of success. People often stop working hard when they reach the top; but to maintain that top position, you have to work harder and be more consistent in your work to end up triumphantly.

     Three, mind your own business, if no one has asked for your advice; it's probably unwanted and wise to keep it to yourself. Besides, it's impossible to ever know the whole story. It is so easy for you to assume you understand the situation, when in fact, you don't have all the facts. If something doesn't affect you directly, best stay out of it. Know when to shut up and actually do so. Keeping your thoughts to yourself when you are agitated is one of the most valuable skills to learn. There are many instances when keeping to yourself is the best course. When we're angry or upset, we blurt out anything and everything  that comes to our mind. In such situations it's better to keep quiet. It is useless to respond to someone too upset to listen rationally to anything you have to say.

     Four, resist gossip; the most important thing in life is relationships.And the most important thing about building and keeping relationships is trust. The easiest way to lose trust is to gossip about people behind their backs. Sadly, learning not to gossip is hard to do because it meant missing out on important conversations, distancing oneself from influential people and awkwardly having to tell people, sorry, I don't need to know that. Thus, staying present in the moment is all you need do. Living in the present moment might not mean much to you. The state we have become used to is a state where our thoughts are either of the past: what has been, what could have been; what you thought happened versus what actually did happen or of the future; what could happen.

     Five, speaking up is one way of finding purpose in your life. If you want to have impact in your work, your community or on a wider public platform, you must learn to speak up in public. The fear of speaking our mind in public is the commonest fear across cultures. World's greatest investor, Warren Buffett said this about public speaking: "You've got to be able to communicate in life and it's enormously important. If you can't communicate and talk to other people and get across your ideas, you're giving up your potentials." Speaking in public is tied to being honest with others. Just because you don't have anything nice to say, doesn't mean you shouldn't say it. But if you could be brutally honest with yourself, the rewards would be personal integrity and respect from others; both currencies that will take you far in life.

LIKE NORTH KOREA LIKE NIGERIA: THE BULL & THE BUCKET By JOSEPH OKECHUKWU

BACKGROUND

When in February of 2016, Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “Israel is Coming Back to Africa and Africa is Returning to Israel” he wasn’t joking. That is because Donald Trump must have advised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to get to work and make more friends on the continent so Israel is not constantly isolated at the United Nations whenever the need for voting arises. Israel is one of the most hated and vulnerable UN member states. If they have more allies, more countries will vote in their favor at the Security Council. This is very critical because Donald Trump will not always be there. So, Bibi Netanyahu meant business and he went to work immediately.

His first move was to attend an ECOWAS meeting in Monrovia, Liberia. That would be the first time an Israeli Prime Minister would be attending an ECOWAS meeting ever. Funny enough, the Moroccan King was also on his way to the same meeting. Bibi was earlier. The moment the Moroccan king arrived at the airport and heard that Bibi was already on ground, he immediately cancelled attendance and flew back to Morocco. 

It was after this whole scenario that I heard for the first time that Morocco, a North African Islamic Nation was strongly fighting to become a member state of ECOWAS. ECOWAS stands for Economic Community of West African States. It’s meant only for countries in West Africa. So why would a North African nation want to tip the balance?

Apparently, Morocco and the rest of the Islamic world have been understandably restless over Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration about Africa returning to Israel. That obviously sent shivers down their spines hence the frantic move by Morocco to join ECOWAS and use their relationship with the most populous black nation on earth, Nigeria to hurt Israel’s new found love with African nations. Little wonder the Nigerian government quickly exited 90 international bodies and refused to disclose their names to the Nigerian public. It was not difficult to suspect that Nigeria had exited those, probably non-Islamic bodies in other to enter into new Islamic alliances and further consolidate existing ones, the reason they wouldn’t publicly declare the international bodies they were exiting.  

For instance, Nigeria ratified and consolidated its membership of the OIC - Organization of Islamic Communities; Nigeria became a member of the D8 - Organization of 8 Developing Islamic Nations. In this organization you have countries like Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Bangladesh, & Nigeria; Also, Nigeria quickly joined the Saudi - Arabian formed IMA - Islamic Military Alliance – call it the NATO of the Islamic world. All these happened barely one year of president Buhari’s ascent to power. 

FAST FORWARD 

So, I’ve been tracking a set of interesting pieces of diplomatic puzzles for some months now. When the Nigerian presidency announced that a meeting had been scheduled with the US President, Donald J Trump, slated for April 30, 2018, I literally gasped with an unsettling anticipatory spontaneity. I knew it was about to go down. How did I know?

Remember, if you’ve followed me and or my postings/writings long enough, that I wrote a piece some time ago on why I was happy that Trump fired Rex Tillerson, the former US Secretary of State? Sure. 

In that piece, I had explained that Tillerson’s ouster was not unconnected with his recalcitrant and insubordinate attitude of always doing what he wanted and not what his boss, the president wanted. I explained in little detail that his troubles began in Ethiopia and peaked in Kenya, where he tended to sound a little like an Obama appointee, which posed a huge National Security threat to Israel and by extension, the United States. 

Israel literally runs much of East Africa in more ways than one. They are so wary of any form of regime change that will benefit Islamists in any way, shape or form in that region. They would fight tooth and nail to resist the subtle Islamization of that region and they have many reasons to. Obama did his best to neutralize Israel’s grip on the region and for some strange reason, he came out failing with every try. Tillerson’s posturing was toeing that path and he expectedly lost out. 

Under the current US regime, an attack on Israel or her interest is an attack on America and vice versa. I’ve never seen these two countries so close for as long as I’ve been alive and Tillerson simply took that for granted and he paid a huge price. 

If you recall, it was reported that he got winds of the plan to fire him while in West Africa. I don’t agree. He already knew from East Africa. He only got wind of a possible announcement of the president’s decision while in West Africa. That is why his Nigerian trip was cut short – almost as if he never came, leaving behind a diplomatic deficit. Trump and Israel knew he could no longer be trusted; they saw through his globalist posturing and unholy alliances with anti Israel elements in Europe. This was the reason they couldn’t even wait for him to wrap up the trip before making the announcement that he’s been fired. 

When I saw that, the first thing I said was “the next US Secretary of State will soon visit Nigeria”. I was too sure the US was going to make up for that diplomatic deficit left behind by “globalist Tillerson”. I knew there was a strong message that the White House needed to pass across to Nigeria and since Tillerson had betrayed the trust, expectedly, Trump would still get the message across, one way or another. Interestingly, rather than send another Secretary of State, Trump and his team decided that an invite will be more appropriate and I totally agree. To me, that looks even more decent – just that when the message comes from Trump himself, it doesn’t always look as pretty. And sure enough, he lived up to expectations. But there is more. 

Running up to the proposed US visit, the Nigerian presidency was unusually excited about Buhari’s meeting with Trump and they made such a big deal of it. They sure wanted that to be a Public Relations blow on “anti – Buharists” in Nigeria who believe that Buhari is only friends with Islamic nations and not in the good books of the United States. But deep down in my spirit, I knew a drama was about to unfold. I knew Trump was about to deliver the exact same message he would’ve loved Tillerson to deliver to the Nigerian president, which Tillerson would’ve possibly twisted, and I knew it wasn’t going to be pretty because Trump doesn’t know the meaning of “political correctness”, and I proudly share that trait with him. 

So when president Trump eventually “dropped the bomb”, I exhaled. The warning to stop the killing of Christians in Nigeria or “we will do something” came to the Nigerian President and government as a rude shock. It was a massive spoiler to their “beautiful” PR trip to America. It was a gigantic mess. I could imagine the face of the Information Minister, Lai Mohammed, who was all over CNN falsely claiming that Buhari would become the first African Head of State to meet with Trump in the oval office. No, the Egyptian president did already. CNN expectedly let him get away with it but they later admitted the truth. It was a disaster. Their social media handles went into a freeze mode. Officials went cold and you could literally just hear their hearts pounding away from a distance. Not what they expected to hear. I was surprised they didn’t see that coming. But that’s not all that came at them...

From my little back channels, I heard that there was probably so much more said to the Nigerian president than was broadcast in the news media. From what I gathered, the only way to describe the scenario is “historic change of guards”! Power of control may have just slipped from the bloody, guilty, filthy hands of England to the formidable, no nonsense invincible grip of the duo of USA/Israel - controlling the two most powerful military and intelligence outfits in the world. All of Britain’s efforts to control or court Trump have hitherto failed and all their expectations have been dashed. There’s a huge dilemma. Whatever Israel wants is what will happen now. And there’s not much anyone can do about that. You’re either in or you’re out. It’s a hot, liquid flowing nightmare to a regime that has done everything since inception to lean absolutely Islamic by every stretch of the imagination. 

Remember that on their way back from the USA, the Nigeria government strangely detoured to England. That made some news. Mixed reports here and there. They initially said it was a technical stop over, and then later admitted the president saw his doctor briefly. No, I suspect it was all to brief the English architects of the current Nigerian disaster of a regime, on how much of a failure the US trip turned out to be. It was time to re strategize. So he had to head to Nigeria and return to England only a few days later. This time, the presidency said he was going to see his doctor. Well, he went to see his doctor and he returned one day earlier! That never happened before! Just saying though.

But trust me, I believe it was all a strategy session on what to do next. I believe he was advised to listen and take orders from the White House. They must have informed him that the bull in the White House has neither control nor mercy. Isn’t that why China and South Korea quickly advised North Korea to behave, because Trump wasn’t joking when he said he wasn’t going to allow a nuclear North Korea to stand? He was already amassing around the peninsular. He was and still is dead ready, not to impose sanctions but to bomb North Korea back to stone ages. It’s no joke. The US military is ferociously back to its number 1 position in the world, and they’re not smiling. Thanks to Trump. North Korea saw it and knew it was game over. Buhari was served from the same pot of soup on this April 30 trip. If North Korea were jittery, what would Nigeria do? Exactly what the president of Nigeria did – overtaken with shock and fear! 

So what were those other things that may have been said to Buhari behind closed doors? Well I don’t really know but I’ll try to connect a few more dots for you. Now, remember that Nigeria has stood against Israel since Buhari came into power and ratified Nigeria’s membership of those hardcore Islamic organizations? Even on the floor of the UN, you could hear President Buhari openly defending Palestine and so on. But what happened after the US trip? What changed so much that Nigeria would dare to secretly send its ambassador to the opening ceremony of the US embassy in Jerusalem – an occasion that has infuriated the Muslim world so much that Nigeria’s strong Islamic ally, Turkey had to recall its ambassadors from both the US and Israel? The Nigerian government knew exactly how badly the Islamic world would react to this flagrant violation, so they didn’t want the world to know they had sent an ambassador to the event. But the media broke the news and had the Nigerian government running for cover, denying that they sent the ambassador there, even claiming that they were querying the ambassador for his actions, just to assuage the Islamic block they already sold out to on multiple fronts. But the truth would later come out on the senate floor.  

So shortly after all that show of shame and double standard, a Northern Muslim senator, Hon. Aliyu Madaki exploded on the floor of the senate lambasting the Nigerian government for sending an ambassador to legitimize Israel’s claim over Jerusalem at the embassy opening ceremony. He must have been so frustrated because strangely, Nigeria was attending an event that England had boycotted. Unprecedented! The poor guy didn’t know that power has smoothly changed hands. Now, the truth is out and words are flying high and low. “What happened”? Why the sudden change”? Everybody asks. 

In very plain terms, I think Buhari must have been told that his new bosses are now Israel and no longer England, under the circumstance. And America is standing right behind to ensure he plays the good boy whether he likes it or not. That is why he would send an ambassador in breaking with all the Islamic treaties that Nigeria is signatory to. That’s why that senator freaked out because they all knew how deep Buhari had fallen into his subtle Islamization program. Unfortunately, there’s a new sheriff in town and it’s not the kind of sheriff you’d ordinarily see over a country that had almost been sold out completely to Islam. Israel is now in charge and you either take what they say or you’re out. Trump will do whatever it takes to ensure you obey Israel. He broke ranks with European allies to ensure the Iran deal was evacuated. And Secretary Pompeo just announced that US will unload on Iran the harshest sanctions they’ve ever seen, and that European multi national companies who fail to comply with US orders, no matter how big they are will be severely punished! This is unprecedented. Never before seen. Everyone is scared in Europe. The North Korean leadership is shivering themselves to stupor. China had to quickly make a deal closing the annual trade deficit gap with the US by a staggering $380 billion out of $500 billion. What an amazing dealmaker Trump is!

So where does these all lead? My suspicions are that 1. Buhari was given an option of not running for a second term, while in the White House. 2. I believe that he probably begged to run on any conditions that the US/Israel would lay out. 3. I believe that America laid out too much and Buhari agreed to way too much, just to stay in power. 4. I believe that based on that agreement, which is not cast on stone, Buhari sent the Nigerian ambassador to the embassy opening event in Jerusalem, which means that Nigeria must have be compelled to confess that they agree to Israel’s ownership of Jerusalem. 5. I believe that Nigeria will begin to scale back the Fulani herdsmen crisis as soon as possible. 6. I believe that even after the gentlemanly agreement to allow Buhari to prove himself, that Israel may still be bent on showing him the door. 7. I suspect that on sensing a renewed effort to remove Buhari from office, that England and their Islamic allies may pull a surprise by telling Buhari to ignore Trump, and I suspect that this will spell doom for Nigeria. 

A fully Islamized Nigeria is an incredible security risk to Israel. If Israel would bomb Syria just for hosting an enemy nation like Iran, they will annihilate Nigeria for entertaining more than just one enemy - Turkey, Iran, etc. 

It almost appears as if Donald Trump came to power because of Israel. Whichever way you look at it, the game has changed and power has changed hands. Trust me, England is at a crossroads right now because they can’t control Trump. The only way they get anything significant done again in Nigeria, in terms of policy is if Donald Trump is impeached or if he’s killed. Unfortunately, as much as these two horrifying possibilities hang in the air, Trump’s popularity has continued to soar out of proportion, even amongst liberals. Besides, he seems to have mastered the game so much he now has near formidable team of diehard loyalists – that’s all it takes to assert yourself, and he has! That’s basically why there is fire on the mountain, the world over. The days and weeks and months ahead will unfold in such dramatic fashion that our socio political landscape in Africa, especially Nigeria may never be the same again.

Putting your imagination to work

                              By Bayo Ogunmupe

Putting your imagination to work is the subtitle of Creative Thinkering, one of the classics of the world's experts on creative thinking, Michael Michalko. This book is a wonderful manual on creative problem solving. Turn to any page, the idea machine in you cannot help but start manufacturing new ideas. The volume, a paperback, was published in 2011 by the New World Library, Navato, California, United States. Have you ever asked yourself "why didn't I think of that?" If so, this book is for you. In it, bestselling creativity expert Michael Michalko shows that in every field of endeavor, from business and science to lawmaking and governance, the arts and even day to day activities- our natural creativity is only limited by the prejudices of logic and our accepted tradition.

    Through step by step exercises, illustrated strategies and inspiring real world examples, Creative Thinkering will show you how to synthesize dissimilar subjects, think paradoxically and enlist the help of your subconscious mind. Thereby you will liberate your thinking and expand your imagination. The text has Creative thinking as part one. The creative thinker occupies its second part. It has 13 chapters, with its concluding chapter named Dancing in the Rain. It also has 236 pages, and within them are an appendix of 10 pages, notes on the texts cover eight pages and the index is of 10 pages.

    Michalko's purpose for writing the book is to emphasize the importance of conceptual blending in creative thinking in business and personal lives. Blending of dissimilar subjects, words, ideas and concepts is the most important factor in creative thinking. His topics include: we are all born spontaneous creative thinkers. How the thinking pattern we're taught in school prevent us from using our natural creativity. Why geniuses are geniuses and how geniuses use conceptual blending to create novel ideas. And how conceptual blending has inspired creative thinkers since the invention of fire.

    Conceptual blending allows information to intermingle in the mind; when people swap thoughts with others from different fields, it creates new, exciting thinking patterns for both individuals. Thus, nearly all technologies result from combinations of other other technologies with new ideas bubbling up. When you make connections between your subject and something unrelated, your imagination fills in the gaps to create new ideas. It is your willingness to fill in the gaps that produces the unpredictable idea. That was why the winner of the 1921 Nobel Prize for Physics Albert Einstein claimed that imagination is greater than knowledge.

    We are educated to be analytical and logical thinkers. We are taught to make common associations between subjects that are related such as apples and banana since both fruits. But our ability to associate only related concepts limits our penchant for creativity. We form mental walls between related concepts and concepts that are not related. Just as conceptual blending allows information to intermingle, the same way it has inspired creative thinking throughout history.

    Similarly, when two dissimilar subjects are blended in the imagination, new ideas that are formed are not only greater than the sums of their parts, they are different from the old subjects. A classical example that illustrates conceptual blending is the story of the German goldsmith Johannes Gutenberg who invented printing. His moveable-type printing revolutionized the storage and transmission of information. Sadly, academic analysis of creative thinking altered the concept of creativity.

    Pedants took the simple process of blending and by fragmenting it into parts and giving each part a different name, they produced the illusion that creative thinking entails several complex processes. Indeed, what scholarly theories best illustrate is our tendency to fragment subjects into separate parts and ignore their interconnectedness. Scholars try to understand what creates waves by studying just one wave, ignoring the others. This results in confusion, which creates a barrier to understanding what creative thinking is in terms of ordinary thought and language.

    Here is an example of how people think creatively. "Jake Ritty's invention is an example of blending two elements from unrelated fields into an insightful solution. In 1879, Jake a restaurant owner, was travelling by ship to Europe. During the voyage, passengers were allowed to take a tour of the ship. In the engine room, Jake was captivated by the machine that recorded the number of times the ship's propeller rotated. What he saw in this machine was the idea of a machine that can count money collected from his restaurant."

    Ritty was thinking inclusively. His goal was to make his work as a restaurant owner easier and more profitable. After the tour, Jake asked himself, "How can I get a machine that can count money?" Consequently, he made a hand operated counting machine. Understanding how Jake got his idea of money counting machine is understanding the process of creative thinking. Michalko believes man's greatest discovery was the art of making and maintaining fire. This is followed by the invention of weapons, tools, storytelling, alliances, gods, and civilizations.

    Anthropologists speculate that the ancients observed spiders weaving to trap insects. By integrating the skill of weaving from spiders and hunting, the ancients were inspired to weave nets to trap small prey. Change the way you look at things and the things you are looking at will change; that is the title of chapter seven. And we see things as we are, rather than seeing things as they are. Which is why we see no more than we expect to see.

    In his conclusions, Michalko told stories about human potential and the people who have had the courage and will to overcome personal adversity. Interlarded in the book are thought experiments devised to inspire the reader's creativity. He named the book Creative Thinkering, enfolding Thinker and Thinking into one word: Thinkering which symbolizes how both the creative personality and the creative thinking process are inextricably connected. You choose how to live your life. You create your own reality. You choose to be the subject of your life and determine your own destiny by transforming yourself into a creative thinker.

    This book will help you transform yourself, much as a caterpillar becomes a butterfly. While the author was a youngster, one day he followed his grand father hiking. His grand dad stopped and picked a caterpillar. "Look at this, what did you see?" "A caterpillar" Michael said. Later, Michael said that there was nothing in the caterpillar that showed him it was going to be a butterfly."Exactly," his grand dad answered. "And there is nothing in you on the outside that shows others what you will become. When people tell you why you can't do something or become something remember the caterpillar. You cannot see what is going on inside the caterpillar, and they cannot see what is in your mind. Only you, like the caterpillar, know what you are capable of becoming," his grand dad concluded.

    Michael Michalko is a world renowned creativity expert. His clients range from Fortune 500 companies to associations and governments. As a U.S Army officer, he spearheaded NATO intelligence specialists in Germany to research, collect and categorize all known inventive thinking methods. His team then applied the solutions to NATO military challenges triumphantly. His best selling books include  Thinkertoys, ThinkPak and Cracking Creativity. He is the  person that can help Nigeria solve her problems of poor power supply, dilapidated infrastructure and national integration. He lives in Rochester, New York. His website is www.creativethinking.net. He posted this copy to me from his home in the USA.

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REFLECTIONS ON RAMADAN FAST 1

Ramadhan is the [month] in which was sent down the Qur'an, as a guide to mankind, also clear [Signs] for guidance and judgment [Between right and wrong]. So every one of you who is present [at his home] during that month should spend it in fasting, but if anyone is ill, or on a journey, the prescribed period [Should be made up] by days later. Allah intends every facility for you; He does not want to put to difficulties. [He wants you] to complete the prescribed period, and to glorify Him in that He has guided you; and perchance ye shall be grateful.  (Surat Al-Baqarah 2:185)

Muslims welcome the holy month of Ramadan with simple and minimal decoration as the holy month does not stand as a celebration but as a time for religious and divine reflection. It is a time for spiritual stocktaking and moral revival. It is a time of rejuvenation of religious and moral piety and reaffirmation of faith. Even the diehard and titular Moslems undergo a behavioral and attitudinal change during this month. The mosques are filled to capacity and the whole community assumes an atmosphere of religiosity: A time when even the confirmed sinners seek the benevolence of Allah; a time when evil and vile men seek atonement for their iniquities. Such is the month of Ramadan. Perchance, our leaders will take advantage of the promise of forgiveness from Allah to turn a new leaf and do the needful in making our life better and seek the path of righteousness. We have suffered enough as a people and this suffering does not need to continue. With the resources with which we have been endowed, there is enough for everyone to bask in the prosperity of our God-given provisions. But when a few conspire to deny the majority their rightful share of the commonwealth, they sentence the people into penury, want, misery and poverty. Ramadan is therefore, an opportunity for sober reflection and a chance for meaningful and positive change. 

Those who have perfected the ignoble art of cheating their fellowmen and converting the common patrimony into personal wealth have an opportunity to rethink and change. If only we know that the end is nearer than we think. 

Abu Huraira narrated that Allah's Messenger, said: "When the month of Ramadan starts, the gates of the heaven are opened and the gates of Hell are closed and the devils are chained." [Bukhari] Fasting in Ramadan is therefore a shield from Hell; fasting subdues sinful desires and reduces their severity: It is these desires and lusts that lead to Hell Fire.

The Quran talks about the reward of fasting and there are verses which general meaning infers that those who obey Allah will be saved from Hell, and fasting is a form of obeying Allah. The Ahadith of our beloved Prophet Mohammad, are clear in this regard; Abu Said al-Khudri reported that the Messenger of Allah, said: "No servant fasts on a day in the path of Allah except that Allah removes the Hell Fire seventy years further away from his face." [Bukhari and Muslim]  Abu Said al-Khudri also relates that the Messenger of Allah said: "Fasting is a shield with which a servant protects himself from the Fire"[Ahmad, Sahih]

`Uthman Ibn Abil-`Aas relates that the Messenger of Allah said : "Whoever fasts a day in the way of Allah, Allah places between him and the Fire a trench like that between heavens and the earth". [at-Tirmithi and at-Tabarani, sahih]

Ramadan (/ˌræməˈdɑːn/; Arabic: رمضان‎ Ramaḍān, IPA: [ramaˈdˤaːn]; also romanized as Ramzan, Ramadhan, or Ramathan) is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar, and is observed by Muslims worldwide as a month of fasting (Sawm) to commemorate the first revelation of the Quran. The month of Ramadan traditionally begins with a new moon sighting, marking the start of the ninth month in the Islamic calendar. ... This is considered as the holiest season in the Islamic year and commemorates the time when the Quran is said to have been revealed to Prophet Muhammad.

Ramadan is considered to be one of the Five Pillars of Islam. During the month of Ramadan, adult Muslims fast from dusk until dawn, unless they are ill, pregnant, or diabetic, breastfeeding, or traveling.

There is also a verse in the Quran (Quran 2:185) that prescribes fasting for all Muslims who are mature and healthy enough to fast for the full day. So Muslims fast as an act of worship, a chance to get closer to God and a way to become more compassionate to those in need. May Allah accept our Fast as acts of Ibadah; Amin.

Barka Juma’at and a Happy weekend

Milestones: Alhamdullillah, our sister, Hon. Justice Kudirat Olatokunbo Kekere-Ekun of the Supreme Court of Nigeria and amiable wife of our brother AbdulFatah Akintota kekere-Ekun, marked her 60^th Birthday with prayer and thanksgiving. May Allah continue to Guide and protect her.

On Tuesday, May 8, our daughter, Assia Atinuke Jose was a year older. We thank Allah who has preserved her, this far and we beseech Him to continue doing so. 

And next Tuesday, May 15, our son Ismail Jose will also be a year older. May Allah preserve him.

On Sunday, 13^th May, another grandson of our father and son of our brother Abu; Ayyūb Jose will graduate from the university in far away, USA. Allah has been merciful.

Still on Sunday, our brother Enitan Ogunjobi (a grandson of our grandfather Brimoh Jose) will be giving  his daughter Olutosin away in marriage. May Allah bless the union.

Allah has indeed been merciful. Alhamdulillah!

REFLECTIONS ON RAMADAN 2

O you who believe! Guard your own souls: If you follow right guidance, no harm can come to you from those who stray. The goal of you all is to Allah.

It is He who will show you the truth of all that you do.

The Quran 5:105

A deep reflection on the institution of Fast reveals the various ways in which fasting helps in the mending of habits and development of character and God consciousness. With the onset of Ramadan, it behoves each fasting person to open a page from the book of muhasabah (critical self-evaluation) and to reflect on what is being achieved through the month. What benefits are derived, which behaviors are adjusted, what good practices are adopted, which bad habits are being relinquished? How does the prayers and fasting of Ramadan influence attitudes and perspectives; how is it improving relationships with families, friends and neighbors; how much has it increased consciousness of responsibility towards the destitute; how is it impacting on the body, the heart, the mind and the soul. If there is a genuine effort towards the spiritualization of one's being, the moralization of consciousness, empathy in attitude and goodness in conduct; then perchance a concerted effort is being made of treading on the pathway towards the objective of fasting - the attainment of taqwa (piety). Truly, the month of Ramadan is a season for spiritual stocktaking.

In a world, increasingly amoral, perception is considered reality. How one appears to the world has overtaken the substance of who we really are. Taqwa is in reality character development coupled with God-consciousness. Character is not only the face in the mirror, but the real person behind the face. The pursuance of piety begins by making our reputation a reflection of our character. Reputation may be reflected in what people write about you on your tombstone, character is what angels report about you to Allah; and that is the most important.

Ramadan is an ideal training period for filtering out bad habits and developing virtuous character. It is therefore, a good time for our leaders to turn a new leaf, lest ‘we the people’ decide to chase them out like Oliver Cromwell did the ‘Long Parliament’ in 1653. Cromwell’s speech aptly reflects the character of our leaders today: “It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice; ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government; ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money. Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess? Ye have no more religion than my horse; gold is your God; which of you has not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth? Ye sordid prostitutes; have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord's temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; . . ..”  If only they would change in the spirit of Ramadan!

Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) said: “Your practice of faith will not be correct unless your actions are correct, and your actions will not be considered correct unless your heart is correct.” Ramadan is therefore a period for spiritual rejuvenation as it offers the opportunity for a unique expression of worship.

From ethical and moral perspectives, we should contemplate the higher purpose and the deeper meaning of our lives, trying to live meaningfully; balancing our physicality with our spirituality.

While Fasting, we are far more aware of the hunger of the poor and the suffering of the oppressed and are therefore instructed to be more generous this month. This promotes attentiveness to social responsibility, interest in the welfare of society and inspires a continued spirit of generosity.  The Qur'an refers to the fasting ones as sa'ihin/spiritual wayfarers. So, the journey of Ramadan motivates each person to perpetuate the positive spirit being imbibed and to continue on the spiritual journey towards fulfilment and excellence.

It is easy to talk about the world’s problem of hunger. We can feel sorry that millions of people go to bed hungry each day. But not until one can actually feel it in one’s own body is the impact truly there. Compassion based on empathy is much stronger and more consistent than compassion based on pity. This feeling must lead to action. Fasting is never an end in itself; that’s why it has so many different outcomes. But all the other outcomes are of no real moral value if compassion is not enlarged and extended through fasting. It is therefore in the interest of our fasting leaders and those not fasting to shed the toga of iniquity, selfishness and corruption and for once think of the poor masses who are not only defenseless but also hungry. It is only by doing this that the fast can have spiritual reward and meaning. As the prophet Isaiah said, “The kind of fasting I want is this: remove the chains of oppression and the yoke of injustice, and let the oppressed go free. Share your food with the hungry and open your homes to the homeless poor” (Isaiah 58:3-7)

May Allah accept our fast, Amee.

Ramadan Kareem and Barka Jumuah

ALHAMDULILLAH: It is with utmost joy and thanks to Allah that we announce the graduation of the last two children of our late sister, Muyiba Modupe Shoaga; yesterday Ahmed and Tayo Shoaga both graduated from the university in New Jersey. It is the culmination of a life of struggle and sacrifice. Allah has been merciful and all praise are due to Him. Shukra lilahi!  

My command at midnight

In December 1992 I traveled from Lagos to Katsina State for the first time. It turned out to be the longest journey I have undertaken within Nigeria. At this time Katsina didn’t have a functional commercial airport; so we landed at Kano International airport, and I made the rest of the journey by road – a two-odd hour trip. It was a business trip. The Alhaji Saidu Barda government was planning an elaborate water scheme for the state, so my contacts in government invited tender from my company. I finally settled down in my Katsina Motel room at well past 10:00p.m.

By 8a.m. the next morning, the Special Adviser to the Governor on water resources already had a driver waiting at the Motel’s reception. The lingua franca was strictly Hausa language for the common folk; any attempt to breach the existing order was robustly checked with “ba turenchi!”. With improvised sign language and a limited number of Hausa words I managed to stumble through with that stratum of Katsina society. My visit was partly coordinated by an assistant director in the state ministry of health, one Dr. Aminu Safana - rings a bell? Yes; he later joined national politics after a stint with the Afri Projects Consortium. Cerebral and thorough-going, Safana could have risen to any heights in Nigerian politics, but most tragically, he mysteriously slumped and died while holding forth on a controversial matter on the floor of the green chamber – it was a big loss to the nation. (May his gentle soul find bliss in Abraham’s bosom)

Katsina’s weather swings like a pendulum during the harmattan season. The temperature gradients at this time were such that heaters are employed at night , while air-conditioning is used during day time. Not the best of places to be in December; I thus looked to deploying my return ticket. I had earlier impressed on my hosts that my maiden visit couldn’t last longer than three days since I had a crucial appointment to catch in Lagos. So after three frenzied days I was set to return whence I had come. Ever the generous host, Safana promptly assigned a driver to take me to the Kano airport. We arrived the precincts of the airport at a little past 4p.m.; only to be informed that the last flight of the day departed less than an hour previously. “When does the last flight depart Kaduna?” I impulsively enquired from our informer. “About 7PM,” he responded. “Kaduna airport straight,” I called out to the dutiful driver, snatching a glance at my watch; if we are lucky we could be in Kaduna at a little past 6p.m., I quietly comforted myself.

As the driver manoeuvred the sedan through the outskirts of the ancient city of Kano, the reality of missing my 10a.m. appointment in Lagos started taunting me; an appointment with the Chief of Naval Staff is not one to be treated capriciously, I kept reminding myself. I simply must make the appointment, “Insha’ Allah”, repeating a refrain I had quickly learned during my 3-day visit. The Kano/Kaduna segment wasn’t as hitch-free as the Katsina/Kano had been, what with the many failed portions of the road and the heavy traffic between the two principal northern cities. Much to my anguish we arrived Kaduna airport at about 15 minutes past 7p.m. – of course you guessed the report thereof: the last flight was already airborne. With the barest communications between us we left the airport; pulled up at the next petroleum-products station; recharged our tank; quickly refreshed and headed for Lagos through the Jebba corridor. It was well past dusk and the single-lane road was pitch-dark. I instinctively spent considerable time trying to figure out the visual acuity of my indulgent driver, and somehow re-assured myself he could handle his present challenge. I finally settled down to the marathon journey south, consigning our fate to God.

The journey proceeded reasonably well until some three-odd hours later when we suddenly came to a halt. It was some 20 minutes until midnight. Ideas naturally quickly ran riots in my head: Robbery activity? Police check point? Road mishap? etc. Time inexorably raced. After 30-odd minutes that felt like eternity, we still hadn’t moved an inch! And no vehicles were coming in the opposite direction – the indicators are all too familiar. We have a completely blocked road to contend with, I concluded; looking with intensity into the pitch-darkness to master our immediate surroundings. Frustrated drivers and passengers milled about the endless line of stationary vehicles, letting out their worst fear – passing the night on the highway. The thought jolted me; that is not an option for me, I thought, at once opening the door and stepping into the dark night. “Let me check the front,” I said to the driver.

As I made my way through the utter disorderly maze, my white caftan sharply stood out like a sore thumb. In a like manner, the present hot and humid weather sharply contrasted the expected chilling temperatures in far away Katsina. A “petro tanker” had fallen across the road, I heard some one informing a small group. I persisted in the meandering, twisting this way and turning that way movement, oozing with profuse perspiration. Perhaps for the first time in my life, I experienced firsthand the meaning of the retort, “devil in the detail!”

It literally took forever to finally get a glimpse of the head of the endless line. My adrenaline hit an all time high on sighting “the devil”, as it were.  A huge petroleum-products articulated vehicle lay awkwardly on its side, filling up virtually the entire width of the road. Another articulated vehicle, apparently south-bound, filled up the remaining space. A sea of heads came into view. This must replicate the very picture of hell, I thought with my eye fixed on the big challenge. “Who is the driver of this bloody trailer!” I bellowed, lashing out at the south-bound vehicle with my clenched fist in sheer helplessness. It was a magical touch. The multitude suddenly woke up; “Where is the foolish driver!!!” “Where is the foolish driver!!!” the crowd shouted with hundreds of blows landing on the offending vehicle. A man was soon sheepishly dragged towards the vehicle; “Sorry sir; sorry sir…”, he kept muttering, timidly gesturing to me. “I give you one minute to move this bloody trailer out of here; or…” Multiple voices drowned the rest of my threat. Engine revved; gears clanked into position and the behemoth heaved forward, then backwards; repeated the manoeuvre a couple of times more, with the drivers among the crowd closely directing the troubled man behind the wheel to adroitly manoeuvre the articulated vehicle through the dangerously sloppy strait.

 One wrong move, I later realized, would have toppled the behemoth into the side ditch. That was the reason the driver fearfully abandoned his vehicle in the first place – the available space could just about accommodate cars and other light vehicles. I was quickly surrounded by eager assistants once the strait was cleared. “Okay! only cars; jeeps; and light buses, okay?!”  “Yes sir!!!” “Ten from Kaduna; ten from Jebba!” “Yes sir!!!” As I gestured the men quickly took positions, and soon after the kilometres-long lines on both sides of the road slowly came back to live, after over six hours of utter gridlock. When my vehicle came up I waved the driver on. Few minutes after, I effusively thanked the men, and took my leave of them. We safely arrived in Lagos well past dawn; and I am pleased to inform that I made my appointment.  

My Command at Midnight experience taught me three enduring lessons: 1) The multitude always looks to a leader for direction, lest its uncoordinated action results in chaos; 2) Any sane person can effortlessly lead a multitude, provided such persons are transparently selfless towards the collective interest; and 3) A mystical bond as soon forms between such leaders and their followers. Therefore, as Nigeria approaches the 2019 general elections, the electorate must constantly bear in mind that the key to unlocking the fortunes of our potentially great country lay in a leadership that is transparently anchored on the collective good of the citizenry, irrespective of tribe, region or religion.

Afam Nkemdiche is an engineering consultant; May, 2018